Martingale calculator
Set a first order, a size multiplier and a price step to see every order in a martingale ladder: its size, the capital it ties up, the average entry and the bounce needed to exit at your take profit. Then run the same ladder on real Bybit candles to see how often it filled every order and how deep the open loss went.
1. Build the order ladder
| Order | Drop | Price | Size | Total in | Avg entry | Bounce to TP |
|---|
2. Stress test on real Bybit candles
The martingale ladder, in numbers
A martingale position adds a larger order after every move against it, so the average entry follows price down. Each order costs the first order times the multiplier raised to the order's position in the ladder. With a $100 first order, a multiplier of 2 and six orders, the sizes are $100, $200, $400, $800, $1,600 and $3,200: $6,300 in total, for a ladder that covers a 10% drop at 2% steps.
ladder mathorder size k = first order × multiplier ^ k # k = 0 for the first order
capital, N orders = first order × (multiplier ^ N − 1) ÷ (multiplier − 1)
drop to order k = step × (1 + scale + scale² + ... + scale^(k−1))
take profit = average entry × (1 + TP)
At a multiplier of 2, every extra order doubles the capital while the drop it covers grows by just one step. The appeal sits in the last column of the table: because the average entry lies close to the lowest fills, a small bounce from the bottom order reaches the take profit. The average entry includes the fee on each buy, and the profit at take profit also pays the fee on the sale.
How the real-data stress test works
The stress test runs the ladder as a long-only bot on real Bybit spot candles. Each cycle starts with a market buy at a candle's open plus slippage. Safety orders are limit buys at the ladder prices below that first fill, and the take profit is a limit sale of the whole position at the average entry plus your take-profit percentage. Limit orders fill only when a candle trades through them, using an open, low, high, close path for green candles and open, high, low, close for red ones. After a take profit, the next cycle starts at the next candle's open. There is no stop loss, as in a classic martingale.
The results show the cycles closed at take profit, the win rate with any open cycle marked at the last close, how many cycles filled every order, the share of candles spent fully loaded, the worst open loss as a share of capital, max drawdown, a Sharpe ratio from end-of-day equity and buy and hold for the same capital.
Why a near-perfect win rate can still lose
A martingale wins small and often, then loses large and rarely. Every closed cycle in the test ends at the take profit, so the win rate looks excellent right up to the drop that runs past the last order. From there the full ladder rides the market down with no cash left, and one trend can take back many months of small wins. Return on capital is also measured on the whole ladder, much of which sits idle between deep drops.
Two settings change the risk the most: the drop the ladder covers and the capital it needs. Try the default ladder on a volatile pair over a long 4-hour window, then again with a wider step, and compare the worst open loss. The test uses spot prices without leverage, so there is no liquidation, funding or borrowing cost; with leverage the same drawdown could close the position for you. Past performance does not predict future results. For the theory, read why martingale bots blow up and its opposite, the anti-martingale strategy. To size risk per trade instead, use the position sizing calculator and the risk of ruin calculator.
Frequently asked questions
How much capital does a martingale strategy need?
The first order times (multiplier to the power N minus 1), divided by (multiplier minus 1), where N is the number of orders. At a multiplier of 2 that is the first order times 2 to the power N, minus 1, so 6 orders need 63 times the first order and 10 orders need 1,023 times. The calculator adds it up for any setting.
Does a martingale strategy work in crypto?
It wins often while price keeps swinging back above the average entry, and it fails when a drop runs past the last order. The stress test lets you count both on real Bybit data: how many cycles closed, how many used every order and how deep the open loss went. A good past window says nothing certain about the next one.
What is the difference between martingale and anti-martingale?
A martingale adds size after losses, averaging down. An anti-martingale adds size after wins and cuts it after losses, so the position grows only while a trade works. This calculator models the martingale ladder; our anti-martingale guide covers the opposite approach.
What multiplier and price step should I use?
There is no safe setting, only trade-offs. A lower multiplier and a wider step cover a deeper drop with the same capital but need a bigger bounce to exit. A higher multiplier pulls the average entry down faster but multiplies the capital each extra order needs. Compare settings on several pairs and time frames before risking money. This is educational, not financial advice.