Position sizing guide: how much to risk on each trade

Position sizing — deciding how much to put on each trade — matters more to your survival than which strategy you trade. A profitable edge with reckless sizing still blows up; a modest edge with disciplined sizing compounds for years. This guide covers the main methods, from fixed-fractional to Kelly, and how to apply them to a bot.

On this page
  1. Why sizing beats entries
  2. The main methods
  3. Kelly and its dangers
  4. Sizing in a bot
  5. FAQ

Why sizing matters more than entries

You can have a genuine edge and still go broke if you bet too big, because a string of losses — which happens to every strategy — can drop your account below recovery. Risk too much per trade and a normal losing streak becomes ruin. Position sizing controls how large that risk is, which makes it the most important decision after having an edge at all. For the deeper math see our position sizing strategies guide.

equitytime steady compoundingdeep drawdown
A smooth equity curve compounds; a volatile one with deep drawdowns risks ruin even at the same average return.

The main sizing methods

percent-risk sizingrisk_per_trade = equity * 0.01        # risk 1% of equity
stop_distance  = entry - stop_price
position_size  = risk_per_trade / stop_distance

Kelly and its dangers

Full Kelly is too aggressive

The Kelly criterion calculates the bet size that maximises long-run growth from your win rate and payoff. The catch: full Kelly produces gut-wrenching drawdowns and assumes you know your edge precisely — which you never do. If your real edge is smaller than estimated, full Kelly overbets and can ruin you. Most practitioners use a fraction (half-Kelly or less) to keep drawdowns survivable.

Sizing inside a bot

A bot should compute position size automatically from current equity and the stop distance on every trade, never use a hard-coded lot size, and respect a maximum total exposure across open positions. Use our position-sizing calculator to sanity-check the numbers, and backtest the sizing rule in the backtester — the same entries with different sizing produce wildly different drawdowns.

Not financial advice. This content is educational. Automated and algorithmic trading carries a real risk of financial loss. Never trade money you cannot afford to lose. Review the SEC investor.gov and CFTC resources before trading.

Frequently asked questions

How much should I risk per trade?

A common rule is to risk 0.5% to 2% of account equity per trade. Risking more turns a normal losing streak into account-ending ruin. The exact figure depends on your strategy's drawdown and your risk tolerance.

What is fixed-fractional position sizing?

You risk a fixed percentage of equity on each trade, and derive the position size from the distance to your stop. A wider stop means a smaller position, so every trade carries the same percentage risk.

Should I use the Kelly criterion?

Full Kelly maximises long-run growth but produces severe drawdowns and assumes you know your edge exactly. Because real edges are uncertain, most traders use a fraction like half-Kelly to keep the strategy survivable.

Why is position sizing more important than entries?

Because even a genuine edge blows up if you bet too big — a normal losing streak can drop the account below recovery. Sizing controls how much each loss costs, which determines whether you survive long enough for the edge to pay off.

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Mustafa Bilgic

Algorithmic trading practitioner · Founder, AITradingBot.us

Mustafa builds and backtests automated trading systems and writes about them without the hype. Every tool on this site is free and runs entirely in your browser.